Harmattan.

Cocoa market monitor

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Source ledger

Every input, and what we may do with it

Every figure on this site traces to a row here. Each source shows what it measures, how often it publishes and how far behind events it runs, whether it is a live feed, and — separately from its licence — what Harmattan is permitted to publish from it. Open a row for the licence, the transformation we apply and the caveats.

Cleared for publication

An explicit open licence permits commercial redistribution. Whole series appear on the site, with attribution.

Frankfurter (ECB and central-bank reference rates) GHS, XOF, NGN, USD and GBP against EUR
1 ddaily, business days
2026-08-29live feed
Resolution
Currency
Licence
Open, central bank reference rates checked 2026-09-10
Harmattan usage
Cleared — full series
Transformation
90-day change computed; CFA peg validated against 655.957
Attribution
Frankfurter, from central bank reference rates
Open-Meteo Daily rainfall, observed and forecast, for the producing districts
1 ddaily
2026-10-26live feed
Dataset
Open-Meteo
Resolution
Point, district centroid
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (data); free API tier is non-commercial checked 2026-09-10
Harmattan usage
Cleared — full series
Transformation
Anomaly against the 1991–2020 normal, stage-specific favourable bands
Caveat
Data is CC BY and redistributable. The free API tier is non-commercial and capped, which is why we fetch once a day at build time rather than per visitor.
Attribution
Open-Meteo, from national weather services, CC BY 4.0
CFTC Commitments of Traders Managed-money positioning and open interest, ICE New York cocoa
3 dweekly (Fridays, as of Tuesday)
2026-10-20live feed
Resolution
Contract
Licence
US Government work, public domain checked 2026-09-10
Harmattan usage
Cleared — full series
Transformation
Net position and four-week change computed by Harmattan
Attribution
CFTC Commitments of Traders
NOAA Climate Prediction Center Oceanic Niño Index and ENSO phase
5 dmonthly
JAS 2026live feed
Resolution
Global index
Licence
US Government work, public domain checked 2026-09-10
Harmattan usage
Cleared — full series
Transformation
Phase and strength labelled by Harmattan from the ONI thresholds
Attribution
NOAA Climate Prediction Center
World BankWorld Bank Commodity Markets ("Pink Sheet") Monthly nominal commodity prices
10 dmonthly
2026-09live feed
Dataset
World Bank Commodity Markets ("Pink Sheet") · Commodity Markets Outlook
Resolution
—
Licence
CC BY 4.0 checked 2026-09-10
Harmattan usage
Cleared — full series
Caveat
The route that matters most here. The Pink Sheet's cocoa column IS the ICCO daily price, monthly-averaged, and the World Bank republishes it under CC BY 4.0. So the price series reaches us through the World Bank's licence, not ICCO's — which is why a 31-month series is publishable while ICCO's own bulletin is not.
Attribution
World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook (Pink Sheet), CC BY 4.0
Natural Earth Country and first-level administrative boundaries
n/astatic
hand-entered, cited in place
Resolution
1:10m vectors
Licence
Public domain checked 2026-09-10
Harmattan usage
Cleared — full series
Transformation
Simplified for the browser; cocoa-belt units selected
Attribution
Natural Earth
CERSGIS / WRI / SERVIR Ghana cocoa reference dataset 21,031 field-verified cocoa polygons
n/aone-off
hand-entered, cited in place
Resolution
Polygon
Harmattan usage
Cleared — full series
Transformation
Counted and outlined by region; never shaded as an area estimate
Caveat
Not yet ingested. The clearest genuinely-cleared spatial dataset available to us: 21,031 geocoded cocoa polygons for Ghana. Polygons are cocoa observations, never ownership or legal farm boundaries.
Attribution
CERSGIS/WRI/SERVIR, Reference Dataset for Land Use Change Mapping in Ghana's Cocoa Landscape, CC BY 4.0
OpenStreetMap Ports, roads and place names
livecontinuous
hand-entered, cited in place
Resolution
Feature
Licence
ODbL checked 2026-09-10
Harmattan usage
Cleared — full series
Transformation
Reference geography
Caveat
Attribution plus share-alike. A distributed derivative database may inherit ODbL obligations, which is a design constraint rather than a blocker. Tile providers carry separate terms.
RASFFRASFF — Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed —
2 dcontinuous
not used on the site
Dataset
RASFF — Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed · RASFF Window notifications, cocoa category
Resolution
Origin × month × hazard
Harmattan usage
Cleared — not yet published
Transformation
Not yet ingested; notifications counted, no consignment detail kept
Caveat
Counts of notifications per origin, month, hazard and type only; no operator or consignment detail is stored or published. Most cocoa notifications concern powder and chocolate processed in Europe; raw West African beans are rarely notified. A real but small series.
Attribution
Source: European Commission, RASFF
CHIRPS v3 Rainfall estimates, Africa
3 dpentad
not used on the site
Dataset
CHIRPS v3
Resolution
0.05°
Licence
CC BY 4.0 / public domain treatment checked 2026-09-10
Harmattan usage
Cleared — not yet published
Transformation
Not yet ingested
Caveat
Not yet ingested. Africa-focused, 1981 to near-present, pentad updates. Better suited to a cocoa-belt rainfall percentile than a global reanalysis.
Attribution
CHIRPS v3, Climate Hazards Center, UC Santa Barbara
NASA POWER Daily agroclimatology by grid cell
5 ddaily
hand-entered, cited in place
Dataset
NASA POWER
Resolution
—
Licence
US Government work, public domain checked 2026-09-10
Harmattan usage
Cleared — full series
Attribution
NASA POWER
Global Forest Watch — DIST-ALERT Vegetation disturbance alerts
9 dweekly
not used on the site
Resolution
30 m
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (this layer only) checked 2026-09-10
Harmattan usage
Cleared — not yet published
Transformation
Not yet ingested
Caveat
Not yet ingested. Other GFW layers carry different terms and must be checked individually.
Attribution
Harmattan analysis using UMD/GLAD and NASA DIST-ALERT data accessed through Global Forest Watch. Alerts indicate vegetation disturbance and do not establish deforestation, illegality or cocoa expansion.
EurostatEurostat Comext —
45 dmonthly
not used on the site
Dataset
Eurostat Comext · DS-045409, EU trade since 1988 by CN8
Resolution
Member state × partner × CN8
Licence
CC BY 4.0 checked 2026-09-10
Harmattan usage
Cleared — not yet published
Transformation
Not yet ingested; hundreds of kg converted to tonnes, stored against the origin as the mirror of its exports
Caveat
EU imports of cocoa by member state, partner and CN8. The EU side of the mirror against origin export declarations; the two are never netted. Verified live 11 September 2026.
Attribution
Source: Eurostat (Comext, DS-045409)
ERA5-Land (Copernicus) Reanalysis climate variables
60 dmonthly
not used on the site
Resolution
9 km
Licence
CC BY (Copernicus) checked 2026-09-10
Harmattan usage
Cleared — not yet published
Transformation
Not yet ingested
Caveat
Not yet ingested. Derived calculations must be identified as modified.
Attribution
Generated using Copernicus Climate Change Service information
FAOSTATFAO FAOSTAT Production, area harvested, yield
520 dannual
hand-entered, cited in place
Dataset
FAO FAOSTAT
Resolution
—
Licence
CC BY 4.0 checked 2026-09-10
Harmattan usage
Cleared — full series
Caveat
FAO's supplemental database terms apply alongside CC BY: attribution required, no implied endorsement.
Attribution
FAO. FAOSTAT: Crops and Livestock Products. Licence: CC BY 4.0
Derived display only

Harmattan indicators computed from these may be shown; the source rows may not.

World Bank microdata (LSMS) Household survey microdata
365 dirregular
hand-entered, cited in place
Resolution
Household
Licence
Survey-specific; no raw redistribution checked 2026-09-10
Harmattan usage
Derived display only
Transformation
Derived indicators only
Caveat
Aggregated statistical outputs only. No respondent identification, no dataset linking that could identify respondents.
Editorial citation only

A small number of attributed figures may be quoted — never a database. Twelve points per source is the cap, and the build enforces it.

ICEICE Futures Settlement prices and certified stocks
1 ddaily
2026-08-28live feed
Dataset
ICE Futures
Resolution
—
Licence
Exchange market data is contractually licensed checked 2026-09-10
Harmattan usage
Editorial citation only
Caveat
Individual dated settlements quoted from cited public reports. No series, no live or delayed feed.
IMF PortWatch Port calls and all-cargo tonnage estimates
8 ddaily, refreshed Tuesdays
hand-entered, cited in place
Dataset
IMF PortWatch
Resolution
—
Harmattan usage
Editorial citation only
Caveat
Written confirmation not yet sought. Editorial figures only until it is.
ECAEuropean Cocoa Association European quarterly processing volume
16 dquarterly
hand-entered, cited in place
Dataset
European Cocoa Association · Quarterly grindings
Resolution
—
Licence
Copyright retained; public availability is not a reuse licence checked 2026-09-10
Harmattan usage
Editorial citation only
Caveat
Quarterly headline figure with attribution.
Cocoa Association of Asia Asian quarterly grindings
16 dquarterly
hand-entered, cited in place
Resolution
Region
Licence
Copyright retained checked 2026-09-10
Harmattan usage
Editorial citation only
Transformation
Headline figure quoted
Caveat
Quarterly headline figure with attribution.
National Confectioners Association North American quarterly grindings
16 dquarterly
hand-entered, cited in place
Resolution
Region
Licence
Copyright retained checked 2026-09-10
Harmattan usage
Editorial citation only
Transformation
Headline figure quoted
Caveat
Quarterly headline figure with attribution.
CCCConseil du Café-Cacao Ivorian farmgate prices and campaign dates
21 dirregular
hand-entered, cited in place
Dataset
Conseil du Café-Cacao
Resolution
—
Licence
No open licence located checked 2026-09-10
Harmattan usage
Editorial citation only
Caveat
Official farmgate announcements quoted with attribution.
COCOBODGhana Cocoa Board Ghana purchases, farmgate price, crop guidance
30 dirregular
hand-entered, cited in place
Dataset
Ghana Cocoa Board
Resolution
—
Licence
No open licence located checked 2026-09-10
Harmattan usage
Editorial citation only
Caveat
Official figures quoted with attribution. The regional purchases table (cocobod.gh/cocoa-purchases, 1947/48-2019/20) is keyed in data/manual/regional-entries.csv and parsed by the ingest adapter; neither is published until this tier changes to 'series'.
StoneX Surplus and deficit projections
30 dirregular
hand-entered, cited in place
Dataset
StoneX · Soft commodity research
Resolution
—
Licence
Proprietary forecast, reported in press checked 2026-09-10
Harmattan usage
Editorial citation only
Caveat
Figures as reported by named press, cited to them.
ICCOInternational Cocoa Organization Official world balance, stocks, grindings
60 dquarterly
hand-entered, cited in place
Dataset
International Cocoa Organization · Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics
Resolution
—
Licence
Bulletin is a paid publication checked 2026-09-10
Harmattan usage
Editorial citation only
Caveat
Headline figures may be quoted with attribution. The detailed bulletin must not be republished. Note that the ICCO price series on this site arrives via the World Bank Pink Sheet under CC BY, which is a different and cleared route.
Trase — Côte d'Ivoire cocoa insight EU-destined cocoa traceable to a department of production, 2024
365 dirregular
hand-entered, cited in place
Resolution
Department
Harmattan usage
Editorial citation only
Transformation
Three departmental figures quoted; none aggregated
Caveat
Their terms place published representations of data under CC BY 4.0. Figures quoted from an insight article are covered; the underlying dataset is not.
Attribution
French, N., Titley, M., Gollnow, F., Guye, V. (2026). Côte d'Ivoire cocoa exports and deforestation. Trase. https://doi.org/10.48650/heny-bx26
EU value-chain mapping (EEAS) Nigerian state-level production and area
n/aone-off
hand-entered, cited in place
Resolution
State
Licence
EU document reuse policy checked 2026-09-10
Harmattan usage
Editorial citation only
Transformation
Yield computed only where production and area come from this one source
Caveat
Figures quoted from a published EEAS value-chain mapping.
Permission pending

Written permission requested. Nothing is published until it is on file.

Trase — Côte d'Ivoire cocoa supply-chain dataset Exporter-to-department trade flows
365 dannual
not used on the site
Resolution
Department × exporter
Harmattan usage
Permission pending
Transformation
Not used until permission is documented
Caveat
Permission requested 10 September 2026. Some upstream fields are purchased from third parties and carry sharing restrictions that Trase itself cannot waive.
Harmattan's own

The field panel and the series we compute from it.

HarmattanHarmattan derived series Series we compute: spreads, anomalies, revisions
livecontinuous
hand-entered, cited in place
Dataset
Harmattan derived series
Resolution
—
Licence
proprietary
Harmattan usage
Proprietary — Harmattan
HarmattanHarmattan field panel Origin field observations — farmgate, payment, held stock
6 dper wave
hand-entered, cited in place
Dataset
Harmattan field panel
Resolution
—
Licence
Harmattan proprietary checked 2026-09-10
Harmattan usage
Proprietary — Harmattan
Caveat
Our own field panel. Governed by respondent consent rather than an external licence: village and district aggregates publishable, exact plot coordinates are not, and commercial disclosure consent is separate from research consent.
Not yet assessed

Listed in the registry but no licence assessment recorded. Nothing published.

JRCEC Joint Research Centre Global Forest Cover 2020 EU reference forest cover at the 2020 cutoff
n/astatic
hand-entered, cited in place
Dataset
EC Joint Research Centre Global Forest Cover 2020 · GFC2020
Resolution
—
Licence
attribution
Harmattan usage
Not yet assessed — nothing published
ANECACAOAsociación Nacional de Exportadores de Cacao Ecuadorian export volumes and guidance
22 dmonthly
hand-entered, cited in place
Dataset
Asociación Nacional de Exportadores de Cacao
Resolution
—
Licence
attribution
Harmattan usage
Not yet assessed — nothing published
AIPCAssociação Nacional das Indústrias Processadoras de Cacau Brazilian processor receipts and grindings
25 dquarterly
hand-entered, cited in place
Dataset
Associação Nacional das Indústrias Processadoras de Cacau · SindiDados / Campos Consultores
Resolution
—
Licence
attribution
Harmattan usage
Not yet assessed — nothing published
BPSBadan Pusat Statistik Indonesia Indonesian provincial production and area
300 dannual
hand-entered, cited in place
Dataset
Badan Pusat Statistik Indonesia
Resolution
—
Licence
attribution
Harmattan usage
Not yet assessed — nothing published
Internal only

Informs research and model development. Nothing public, not even derived.

MapSPAM (IFPRI) Modelled crop area
liveirregular
not used on the site
Resolution
10 km grid
Licence
CC BY-NC 3.0 checked 2026-09-10
Harmattan usage
Internal only — nothing published
Transformation
Not used
Caveat
Non-commercial. Not usable in this product without IFPRI's permission, despite appearing on several 'open data' lists. Transforming it into a derived indicator would not cure the NC term.
Côte d'Ivoire cocoa map (research paper) Classified cocoa area
n/aone-off
not used on the site
Dataset
Côte d'Ivoire cocoa map (research paper)
Resolution
Pixel
Licence
Paper openly licensed; licence on the vector files unverified checked 2026-09-10
Harmattan usage
Internal only — nothing published
Transformation
Not used
Caveat
Hold until the data licence is confirmed. An open-access paper does not license its supplementary data.
World Database on Protected Areas Protected-area boundaries
30 dmonthly
not used on the site
Resolution
Polygon
Licence
Specialised terms; commercial use restricted checked 2026-09-10
Harmattan usage
Internal only — nothing published
Transformation
Not used
Caveat
Protected-area boundaries cannot be treated as generic open data. Needed for any protected-area overlap claim, so this is a blocker for that feature rather than a nice-to-have.
UN Comtrade Bilateral bean and product trade
95 dmonthly
not used on the site
Dataset
UN Comtrade
Resolution
—
Harmattan usage
Internal only — nothing published
Caveat
The adapter is built and tested and publishes nothing. This is the largest prospective exposure on the site: turning it on without a licence would move us from quoting to redistributing in one commit.

Two cautions

PortWatch tonnage is all cargo, not cocoa. Abidjan throughput moving tells you about Abidjan, not about cocoa specifically.

Indonesian production is on a different basis. The official agency reported 641,700 tonnes for 2023; trade estimates of exportable beans are a fraction of that, because one counts wet farm weight and the other fermented and dried. We leave the tonnage blank rather than put an incomparable number beside an ICCO balance.

How the gate works

The usage status is enforced, not noted. The build counts how many data points each source contributes to the published pages and compares that with its tier. A citation-only source that starts contributing a series fails the build; a pending source contributes nothing until the permission is on file. This page and the gate read the same ledger, so they cannot disagree.